Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 17 2024 01:58:05

AWUS01 KWNH 170157
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-170730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0633
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
957 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Southern High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170156Z - 170730Z

Summary...An MCS is emerging from the Southern High Plains this
evening. Periods of repeating cells and increasing rainfall
efficiency to support 2-3"/hr rates at times could lead to some
flash flooding tonight.

Discussion...Radar and IR imagery depict an organized forward
propagating MCS generally translating east-southeastward out of
the Southern High Plains, with an independent area of cellular
development downstream across the OK/TX Panhandle associated with
various outflow boundary collisions. Although some hail
contamination may be present, 1.5-2"/hr rates are noted along the
leading edge of the MCS, and within the more intense cells over
the Panhandle per MRMS.

Estimates from recent objective analysis suggest the environment
downstream of the ongoing complex will support increasing rainfall
efficiency as it migrates eastward tonight, with 1.5-1.8" PWATs
and 3500-5000 J/kg of MUCAPE noted. Accordingly, recent runs of
the HRRR depict an uptick in hourly rainfall rates to 2-3"/hr at
times as the complex treks through the Panhandle region and merges
with the downstream cells over the next several hours. This could
locally breach 1 HR FFGs in the region (generally in the 1.5-3"/hr
range), particularly in spots which are currently seeing rainfall
ahead of the MCS.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7v8pgm6nRaq6Lc1TP4lzk-vmw8E3LO7FdYg9fTwKSkQff1piU91SI-oqhrd3iX_P7Q27=
n0pK6RLuS_660k2fGWvlcoc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38560112 37259884 36029856 35149977 35720235=20
            37110190 38330223=20

=3D =3D =3D
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