Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 17 2024 00:25:45

AWUS01 KWNH 170025
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-170353-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0632
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
824 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Ozarks...Western TN Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170023Z - 170353Z

Summary...Slow-moving cells over northern AR are intensifying and
expanding as forcing increases along a stationary outflow
boundary. Flash flood threat will continue through the next
several hours given slow cell movement and 2-3"/hr rainfall rates.

Discussion...Trends in IR imagery highlight an expanding area of
cooling cloud tops associated with a corridor of very slow moving
cells positioned over northern AR. While this activity was
bubbling along the boundary as convective temperatures were
breached, the rapid uptick in intensity and coverage can likely be
attributed to 1) the approach of a well-defined MCV, and 2)
increasing low-level inflow ascending the cold-pool reinforced
boundary. Although some hail contamination is possible, recent
MRMS precipitation estimates suggest very efficient rainfall rates
of 2-3"/hr are possible beneath the coldest cloud tops north of
CCA.=20

The mesoscale environment in the vicinity of this activity remains
very favorable for heavy rainfall, as recent GPS and mesoanalysis
estimates highlight PWATs around 2", 3500-4500 J/kg of MLCAPE, and
warm cloud depths around 13,000 feet near these cells. The
subjectively modified VWP profile from SGF reveals a westerly
mean-wind profile of 15-20 kts which will continue to favor cell
training given the boundary orientation and increasing 850 mb
inflow approaching the magnitude of the mean wind.

While high-resolution guidance has struggled with this activity,
the very moist and unstable thermodynamic environment combined
with increased forcing will continue to favor instances of flash
flooding through this evening. Additional MPD issuances may be
needed to address any downstream convection along the boundary as
suggested by the HREF and recent runs of the HRRR.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-8zenCi26g839lx9MK3qICZ1DsRljkroejPVV_upwdcJ2oCp5iSHHTapcJOj9SxmxIBG=
EBOnLJw9B6rivhDbGJCszgU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37139051 36748981 36179003 35789074 35579173=20
            35559283 36089320 36559290 37029171=20

=3D =3D =3D
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