Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1662
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 17 2024 00:20:18

ACUS11 KWNS 170020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170019=20
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-170215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1662
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548...

Valid 170019Z - 170215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548
continues.

SUMMARY...Confidence is increasing in the potential for a corridor
of wind damage across parts of far northeast Virginia into northern
New Jersey.

DISCUSSION...GOES IR imagery trends from the past 30-60 minutes show
steady cloud-top cooling as a broken line of convection deepens from
far northeast VA into southeast PA and NJ. Latest VWP observations
and upper-air analyses show somewhat weaker mid to upper-level flow
as compared to locations further north (where an organized MCS is
ongoing), but mean wind and deep-layer shear vectors should favor
upscale growth in the coming hour into a somewhat more cohesive line
of storms. Regional terminal radar imagery already shows some degree
of cold pool amalgamation, which supports this idea. RAP
mesoanalysis indicates that the apex of a buoyancy ridge lies
immediately downstream of the developing line, and deep-layer wind
shear is still sufficient (around 25-35 knots) to support some
degree of convective organization. Consequently, the potential for a
line of thunderstorms capable of damaging to severe winds should
increase over the next 1-2 hours as thunderstorms continue to
intensify.

...Moore.. 07/17/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9GRqyUU5aHTPG_dsMJiNTQ8HG45kW2z1ArKGDIHNLxMSMmMX0QqYeLP2TpCOCJTRsat9BUOT9=
PW3BwnvlfTioKThQvQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39797707 40067621 40337553 40537515 40657478 40677434
            40497403 40237404 39917413 39667438 39387467 39147520
            38927590 38737665 38717705 38737739 38797765 38837793
            38947810 39167795 39427768 39697715 39797707=20


=3D =3D =3D
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