Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 16 2024 19:59:17 ACUS01 KWNS 161959 SWODY1 SPC AC 161957 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains to the Northeast. Greatest severe-thunderstorm threats within that are over parts of the central Plains and upper Ohio Valley to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and western New England. ....20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted behind ongoing convection and the mid-level shortwave in parts of New York and Pennsylvania. Elsewhere, the outlook remains mostly on track with only minor adjustments based on current observations and expected convective evolution. ...Wendt.. 07/16/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024/ ....Northeast States... A well-defined shortwave trough and embedded MCV from last night's severe MCS is tracking into western NY. Strong heating of a moist air mass ahead of this system will result in intensification of thunderstorms early this afternoon, with storms tracking eastward across NY/northern PA into New England this evening. Damaging winds (potentially widespread) will be the main concern with these storms, although hail and a tornado or two are also possible. Have expanded the SLGT risk to the MA/NH coast, given favorable westerly surface winds and morning CAM solutions suggesting that MCS may persist that far. South of the main upper feature, a hot and humid air mass is present from central PA and NJ southward. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop in this area, despite rather weak forcing. Sufficient winds aloft will promote a few organized storm clusters, capable of damaging wind gusts. ....CO/KS/OK/TX... Full sunshine will lead to very deep boundary-layer mixing and scattered high-based showers/thunderstorms along the Colorado Front Range this afternoon. This activity will be capable of locally gusty/damaging winds. As the convection spread east-southeastward into a progressively more moist air mass, intensification and organization of storms into an MCS is expected. This system will track into southwest KS and northwest OK this evening, with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ....Central NE... A surface cold front is sagging southward across SD/NE today. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify along this front over central NE late this afternoon or early evening. Activity will track southward for a few hours, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. ....Mid MS Valley... A large and persistent area of thunderstorms has been affecting portions of MO/IL all morning, resulting in a very large cloud shield. This will significantly impact heating/destabilization later today. Therefore, have adjusted the SLGT region to the areas along and south of the cloud shield, where strong heating is still possible. 12z CAM solutions suggest storms will build southward from this MCS across southern MO/western KY and into parts of AR/TN later today, with some risk of damaging winds. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .