Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 16 2024 18:36:29

AWUS01 KWNH 161836
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-170000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0630
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...South-Central CO...Western NM...Eastern
AZ...Southeast UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161834Z - 170000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
gradually increase in coverage across the Four Corners region
through the afternoon hours.  Isolated instances of flash flooding
will be possible where storms become more anchored to the terrain,
and also across vulnerable burn scar areas.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES 16 visible satellite imagery has
shown an increase in convective development over the past couple
of hours, and this is also becoming evident in regional Doppler
radar.  CIRA layered PWs indicate increasing moisture flux around
the western and northern periphery of a 300-500mb upper ridge
centered over southern New Mexico, with overall storm motions
towards the northeast.  The latest SPC mesoanalysis has PWs
between 0.75 and 1.00 inch extending into southern Utah, so the
storms that develop will be more efficient rainfall producers.

The latest CAM guidance suite is likely underdone with forecast
QPF totals through 00Z, and there is the potential for isolated
1-2 inch rainfall totals with some of the strongest storms that
develop, with much of that falling within a 90-minute time period.
 Parts of northern New Mexico have already received copious
rainfall over the past couple of weeks, and this would make that
region more susceptible to potential flooding.  Although the
threat will likely remain isolated, heavy rain could lead to
impactful flooding concerns if it happens over burn scar areas or
slot canyons.=20

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-OlRoN-aT40liuUklPRGybFUdoTTccyaYnZonnNu7BQTAwiMJrapbqTJlhM7loFZhMeN=
YrwzMgfF1FLIXklf1b0VueI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...SLC...TWC...
VEF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39101089 38601023 38100963 37890859 38110689=20
            37980578 37610503 37150459 36220478 35330535=20
            34940638 35260693 34950744 33600737 32900779=20
            32810860 32970934 33591002 34491015 35710997=20
            36281023 36521086 36271167 35931251 35931305=20
            36231376 36861397 37541373 37951321 38161280=20
            38991156=20

=3D =3D =3D
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