Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1653
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 16 2024 18:36:20

ACUS11 KWNS 161836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161835=20
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1653
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania into Northern Maryland...New
Jersey...and far Southern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161835Z - 162030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed later this
afternoon for storms capable of 60-70 MPH wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends and short-term WoFS guidance
suggests that thunderstorm activity should increase over Central and
Eastern Pennsylvania this afternoon, bringing a threat primarily for
damaging straight-line winds. These storms are expected to progress
eastward into New Jersey and far southern New York.=20

Surface observations show a hot, dry boundary-layer in place over
the highlight area, with surface temperatures in the upper 90s F to
low 100s F and dewpoints in the upper 60s F to low 70s F. These
conditions have resulted in MLLCL heights of around 2-3 km and
low-level lapse rates that are dry adiabatic beneath the LCL.
Additionally, the better deep-layer wind shear supportive of
organized convection is confined to northern and central PA,
suggesting that the primary threat is for damaging winds from
disorganized to weakly-organized multi-cell clusters. Weather watch
issuance may be needed later this afternoon.

...Halbert/Squitieri/Hart.. 07/16/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5cCh9zJwfDrlEmYmTnC99I39RpJ9pXvGgcADVDl-Jp-jajBAJ4tXtP87uIZ_R0oSeNlYytWwk=
pPViHoCCPmjH8FKorA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39917808 41057765 41307728 41407675 41497604 41447524
            41337454 41317399 41137362 40797362 40517369 39977409
            39837432 39687500 39557577 39277620 38967647 38807661
            38727693 38707737 38817799 39117826 39567818 39917808=20


=3D =3D =3D
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