Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 16 2024 14:28:25

AWUS01 KWNH 161428
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-162000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0629
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1026 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...Central MO...Southern IL...Southwest IN...Western
KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161426Z - 162000Z

SUMMARY...The heavy rainfall threat from slow moving clusters of
storms will continue going into the early afternoon hours.=20
Rainfall rates reaching 2+ inches per hour are expected to result
in additional instances of flash flooding, especially across areas
that have saturated soils from earlier rain this morning.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and infrared satellite imagery depict
two separate mesoscale convective systems, with a progressive MCS
approaching from eastern Kansas, and a much slower one over
southern Illinois that has indicated hours of back-building
convection.  Additional slow moving showers and storms have
recently developed between these two areas, with potential for
additional backbuilding.

There is strong boundary layer moisture convergence just ahead of
an incoming cold front, in an environment of PWs between 2.0 to
2.3 inches based on the latest SPC mesoanalysis.  Model forecast
soundings indicate ample instability feeding into both of these
complexes from the southwest, with convection likely to increase
in coverage over the next few hours.

The latest CAM guidance has improved some since earlier this
morning in the depiction of ongoing convection.  The 13Z HRRR
seems to have a decent initialization of what is currently
happening, and this model depicts a few more hours of training
convection before the MCS bows out and becomes more progressive.=20
The potential exists for patchy maxima of 3-6 inches through 3 pm
CDT. Some instances of flash flooding are likely with the
strongest and most persistent convection.

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-6oUXy0Ge-Nrxgl-RmV8OL6zzf0_tiUVsUwTiK10-QYxIsf8uDGc2f_im8aFwYZ71fW-=
U3Z-hEdxhhm5ZYiGs4rWWMQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39599038 39478981 39178861 38788803 38348771=20
            37908749 37538725 36748726 36388800 36358943=20
            37079232 37309325 37599378 38019379 38379334=20
            38499278 38499243 38589200 38729161 38909151=20
            39219138 39589099=20

=3D =3D =3D
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