Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 16 2024 08:31:18

AWUS01 KWNH 160831
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-161429-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0627
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...central/southern Illinois, southwestern Indiana,
a small part of western Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160829Z - 161429Z

Summary...Expansive convective band over central Illinois will
continue to propagate southward, causing 1-2 inch/hr rain rates
that prompt a few areas of flash flooding.  This risk will
continue through the 12-14Z timeframe.

Discussion...Mature, yet elevated convective complex continues to
migrate southward slowly across central Illinois and generally
extends from near Bloomington, IN to near Quincy, IL.  While
southward translation has increased over the past couple hours,
individual cells were developing and moving east-southeastward
within the convective band, resulting in localized training and
persistent areas of ~1.5 inch/hr rain rates.  The elevated
updrafts were still being fostered by steep upstream lapse rates
(around 7.5C/km in the mid-levels) and convergent inflow at 850mb
at around 30-35 knots or so.=20

The upstream instability/kinematic combo is likely to remain in
place for several more hours despite a gradual weakening of 850mb
flow.  This lends more confidence in the convective band actually
reaching (or perhaps persisting slightly south of) the Ohio River
through the 12-14Z timeframe.  Areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates
should continue and threaten FFG thresholds across the region
(generally in the 1.5-2 inch/hr range).  Flash flooding remains a
distinct possibility with this activity.  Some uncertainty remains
with respect to the intensity of convection after 12Z, with a
gradual decrease in intensity becoming possible as indicated by
several CAMs.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7s-pKOr1bo28NzaaTkOsA8YFuPlNcEezF76Pcgsp10jZ-svC73H6MEsRKCA-hXLtNiRm=
Po7byTsi44ll5TUmKwwIujQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40139041 40058906 39738755 39078659 38248640=20
            37528686 37198855 37738963 39059057 40009119=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.