Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 16 2024 04:35:18

AWUS01 KWNH 160435
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-160834-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0626
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Areas affected...southern/southeastern Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160434Z - 160834Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall will continue to develop in tandem with a
convective complex currently over Indiana and southwestern
Michigan.  1-2.5+ inch/hr rain rates are expected, which could
prompt isolated flash flooding especially in urbanized/sensitive
areas.

Discussion...A mature MCS continues to spread heavy rainfall
across a broad part of the Midwest.  Of particular concern is an
east-to-west oriented band of storms across southwestern Michigan
that has prompted high rain rates (2 inches/hr measured, 2.5
inches/hr estimated per radar).  These storms continue to be fed
by moist, strongly unstable air across central/eastern Indiana
(3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, 1.5+ PW values) and are supported by focused=20
low-level convergence along and just ahead of the complex.

Models/observations indicate that heavy rainfall (and at least 1+
inch/hr rain rates) should continue to spread eastward in tandem
with the convective complex through 08Z.  This should result in
potential flash flood concerns in urbanized and sensitive areas
along and south of the I-94 corridor, with heavier rainfall
eventually reaching the Detroit Metro area through the 07Z
timeframe.  FFG thresholds outside of the metro areas are above 2
inch/hr thresholds, suggesting that flash flood potential should
remain isolated and tied to the urbanized and/or flood prone areas
with most persistent rainfall.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8oVASAfx-wAwCJ2DD_HBINqwTQuPkAdxhdsgUEv3iF8VKs8pobhR-_xtLHb9XCeK-K6q=
vKCfl-spHkfb5Av3FdKJ2Lc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42878466 42768329 42278266 41818271 41648410=20
            41588591 41858612 42708569=20

=3D =3D =3D
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