Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1645
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 16 2024 04:12:11

ACUS11 KWNS 160412
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160411=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-160615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1645
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...Lower Michigan and adjacent portions of Indiana and
Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 160411Z - 160615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing ahead of an approaching MCV may
pose a severe hail/wind threat heading into the early morning hours.
Trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Convection across northern IN/southern MI within a warm
advection branch ahead of an approaching MCV (currently over lower
Lake Michigan) has shown signs of periodic intensification over the
past 1-2 hours based on trends in GOES IR imagery and vertically
integrated ice. Nocturnal cooling has been somewhat muted by
high-quality low-level moisture already in place across northern IN
into lower MI (dewpoints in the low 70s), resulting in only a weakly
capped environment based on a modified 00 UTC DTX sounding. Despite
somewhat poor hodograph structure above 4 km, around 40 knots of
effective bulk shear should support some storm organization with any
cells that can remain more discrete within the narrow warm advection
regime. Consequently, a severe hail and wind risk may persist across
lower MI for the next several hours. Convective trends -
particularly storm mode - will continue to be monitored for the need
for watch issuance later tonight.

...Moore/Thompson.. 07/16/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!922UHRHo3YiZAqB372UXIo8qmZOWDFe4wam5pXKfYv-dRo8szXvIfcD8AL5GBUBAlOMZnmP6m=
X4sO84fKLhwMtMEg8E$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   41148477 41468498 41738524 41938561 42178575 42538554
            42758506 42908445 42938406 42928372 42878329 42668290
            42328280 41998290 41588322 41378353 41248394 41148477=20


=3D =3D =3D
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