Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 16 2024 04:09:46 AWUS01 KWNH 160409 FFGMPD INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-161007- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0625 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1208 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Areas affected...much of central Illinois, west-central Indiana, and surrounding areas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 160407Z - 161007Z Summary...Robust redevelopment of convection upstream of an MCS over Indiana/central Illinois will pose a flash flood risk over the next 6 hours (through 10Z). Discussion...An intense, well-organized convective complex has spread an appreciable amount of rainfall across much of northern and central Illinois so far today, with widespread 0.5-2 inch rainfall amounts noted. That convective complex has now spread into Indiana, although a strong cold pool extends westward through Springfield, IL, then northwestward through Quincy, IL.=20 Meanwhile, strong southwesterly flow at 850mb continues to maintain strongly unstable air into and above the cold pool, resulting in renewed, robust convective development from Peoria westward to near Burlington, IA. This convective development was oriented parallel to steering flow aloft, favoring training and areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates on grounds that already received copious rainfall from the lead MCS in Indiana. This regime is already prompting excessive runoff across parts of west-central Illinois. This overall regime is expected to remain in place through the next 4-6 hours, with areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates continuing to materialize across the discussion area where convective bands are most persistent. The dominant band over/west of Peoria should persist for at least another couple hours and perhaps shift slowly southward. Another one or two convective bands may also materialize given the favorable thermodynamic environment and multiple sources for ascent. 3-5 inch totals through 10Z cannot be completely ruled out. These rates should readily exceed FFG thresholds, which may be lower than the 1.5 inch/hr rain rates given the recent rainfall and wet soils. Flash flooding is likely in this scenario. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7lAv3pf1SP2teGX1CMgxlXmvFrtKA2DHV9RZFTKnLVreUu0xh31_uSwwk8BO2l8yD2K7= oMArcSk9w33XsrSK9bNLLcg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41428969 41058750 40138634 39518611 38808745=20 38579029 39659143 41289109=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .