Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 15 2024 21:35:40

AWUS01 KWNH 152135
FFGMPD
AZZ000-160300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0623
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
534 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...East-central and Southeast Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152135Z - 160300Z

SUMMARY...Strong upslope moisture flux convergence and unstable
environment should support strong updrafts capable of intense
rainfall rates and localized 1-2" totals resulting in possible
localized flash flooding through evening.

DISCUSSION...RAP analysis fields depict a very unstable
environment along the eastern Mogollon Rim toward the White Mtns
extending south into southeast Arizona across into the ranges of
Cochise county.  MLCAPEs in excess of 2000 J/kg suggest very
buoyant environment exists, supporting strong updrafts and
localized moisture flux enhancement.  This is likely a result of
solid lapse rates along/above the a pool of 700mb moisture with
Tds in the 5-8 degree C range, while solid 10-15kts of low level
upslope flow from the Sonoran Desert valley is rapidly moistening
the lower profile; while also providing strong convergence into
the terrain.  As a result, numerous thunderstorms have been
initiating along the ridge lines of S Apache/Navajo counties as
well as into SE Cochise and Santa Cruz counties.   Deep layer
steering along the southern edge of the deeper layer ridge, will
enhance moisture flux convergence and further moisten the drier
lower profiles.  Given Tds in the 60s, Pwats are nearing 1.3-1.5"
across much of the area of concern, supporting short term rates up
to .75"/hr but will increase to 1-1.5"/hr as the evening
progresses into deeper moisture and evaporation loss is nearly
eliminated. Organized clusters and storm interactions may be
sufficient for localized hang-ups, mergers and upticks that may
result in some even locally higher values up to 2".  As a result,
localized flash flooding is possible across the area of concern
especially southward toward the Mexican border where moisture is
just that bit higher.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!81Fxdl9q31FOZCm1bKd9Bflx2v3KWhnHRfyzC6lmiQTwfLFFj1cgRVJw41B15rTP9app=
3NTql-9K2de5LXz8oQkhn0I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34461128 34411063 33350927 32690938 31610913=20
            31210933 31190995 31201073 31321136 31451191=20
            31881189 32201107 32621087 32981094 33981145=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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