Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 15 2024 02:29:23

AWUS01 KWNH 150229
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-150727-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0620
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1028 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Areas affected...central/southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150227Z - 150727Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorm activity continues to propagate
westward from higher terrain in central/southeastern Arizona.  The
storms are moving toward a moist airmass and could increase in
coverage through 05Z.  Flash flood potential continues.

Discussion...A couple of clusters of thunderstorm activity have
developed along higher terrain in central/southeastern AZ today
and have drifted westward through the early evening.  These storms
are embedded in a favorable easterly-flow pattern aloft for
westward propagation and upscale growth.  Furthermore, the cells
were moving toward a gradually more moist airmass, with 1.5 inch
PW values noted per SPC Mesoanalyses from Phoenix metro southward
and westward.  Spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates were estimated per
MRMS with this activity.  These rain rates are likely to
contribute to isolated flash flood potential in the short term.

As typical for this time of year, thunderstorm clusters were
growing upscale while migrating westward toward the moisture and
instability in place downstream.  Models (particularly the HRRR)
and observations both support an uptick in convective activity
with merging, westward-moving cold pools.  A westward expansion in
coverage of heavier rain rates (exceeding 1 inch/hr) are expected.
 These rates are likely to cause at least isolated flash flooding
especially in low spots and sensitive locales.  Most of this
thunderstorm activity is diurnally driven an dshould persist for
at least another 2-3 hours, with a gradual decrease in convective
coverage expected into the night.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-YR2-bVJbkxVAZt4RoEgtJaNHJjnbCQvowcFz5wFFKqwdzKLdaQniYQ1cYu5gmHdUv1S=
oiLZ4uojy90ypYkgnzXTa0U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35751219 34530979 32710946 31811063 31881216=20
            32521406 33641438 35741384=20

=3D =3D =3D
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