Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1613
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 14 2024 16:56:51

ACUS11 KWNS 141656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141656=20
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-141930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1613
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141656Z - 141930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind is possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A couple of strong storms have developed across
southeast PA early this afternoon, within a warm, moist, and
generally uncapped environment. The 12Z IAD/WAL soundings and recent
forecast soundings depict a warm layer around 600 mb that will limit
instability to some extent, but continued strong heating should
allow for MLCAPE to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon.
Low/midlevel flow is generally weak, but somewhat stronger
upper-level flow could allow for some occasional modest storm
organization, and the strongest storms will be capable of producing
isolated damaging wind and small to near-severe hail.=20

Storm coverage is somewhat more uncertain with southward extent, but
at least isolated development is expected into parts of MD and
eastern VA, where temperatures rising well into the 90s F and
steepening low-level lapse rates will support an isolated
damaging-wind threat with any robust updrafts later this afternoon.

...Dean/Hart.. 07/14/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9K10SwJDtBKTm_S4HdFdG0rNCFA0vGnRb04XYFhnBbqD9UxXkFAktmZrh4BfoqTg6G3RTcy8B=
F6yEAkMFwyn6InYaSs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   38427793 39837661 40987540 41077456 40787409 39797426
            38357576 37807645 37537763 37927807 38427793=20


=3D =3D =3D
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