Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 14 2024 09:20:12

AWUS01 KWNH 140920
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-141400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0618
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
519 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Areas affected...far southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140918Z - 141400Z

Summary...An MCS near LaCrosse, WI remains strong while
propagating southeastward toward northern Illinois, where heavy
rain fell a few hours ago.  Flash flooding remains possible, and
ongoing runoff concerns could be exacerbated  where 2-7 inch
rainfall amounts occurred overnight.

Discussion...  A convective complex continues to propagate
southward along the Mississippi River near LaCrosse, WI currently.
 The complex has maintained its intensity and organization (per
recent water vapor imagery) while migrating southeastward along
the leading edge of steep (7.5-8C/km) lapse rates over Iowa and
southern Minnesota.  Meanwhile, portions of the discussion area
are in the immediate wake of a complex that produced 2-7 inch
rainfall totals (peak near Rockford, IL) along with numerous
instances of excessive runoff and locally significant flash flood
impacts.

The ongoing MCS near LaCrosse was migrating southeastward toward
the aforementioned, impacted areas at roughly 315/35.  Despite
appreciable forward speed, areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates were
occurring in parts of the MCS.  These rates will likely exacerbate
excessive runoff/lingering flash flooding - especially if they
fall on prior impacted areas from overnight.  On its current path,
the MCS should reach the WI/IL border by around 11Z and it appears
plausible that recharging lapse rates across northern Illinois
could aid in the complex maintaining most (if not all) of its
intensity during that timeframe.  Appreciable flash flood
potential is expected as another 0.5-1.5 inches of rain affects
previously impacted areas especially from near Rockford to Chicago.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8-Zlf1vSasNAU9VmKHmALAXUMnkR8ZPChU4Df1_Wz9kqXlmC2BrBzCSzHU67gRXQnDdC=
qKnWDxMBBh4xJ9pfRq3xLiE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   44349130 44078978 43348900 42478787 41878766=20
            41428760 41188796 41218886 41789005 42909110=20
            44229201=20

=3D =3D =3D
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