Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1603
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 14 2024 01:48:13

ACUS11 KWNS 140148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140147=20
MNZ000-140315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1603
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0847 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Areas affected...northwest to east-central MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524...

Valid 140147Z - 140315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524
continues.

SUMMARY...A small cluster with an embedded supercell may evolve into
a small bow and move southeastward across parts of central Minnesota
tonight. This may yield a confined swath of damaging winds and some
hail, with an additional severe thunderstorm watch likely.

DISCUSSION...A trio of updrafts persist over northwest MN in Clay
and Becker counties, the more prominent of which has been a
supercell on the western flank. This specific supercell along the
composite front/outflow appears to be developing a substantial
enough cold pool for potential acceleration and bowing evolution as
it likely tracks along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient to its
southeast. The 00Z MPX sounding in the midst of the gradient sampled
ample buoyancy and favorable west-northwesterly mid to upper-level
flow to support an organized strong to severe wind threat tonight.
While low-level flow will remain modest, the degree of warm theta-e
advection should be adequate to sustain a small MCS. Latest trends
suggest this will likely impact areas along the I-94 corridor into
the overnight.

...Grams/Gleason.. 07/14/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!77GmX0CMrcEt3vbALGrmlyimeFV7bYC6BopGWi3G5iELbFDPG1mo-vdJcGyoEbT1zldH-MQo1=
E8aBMajr0Cp55HGDwY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   47219543 46679448 46089339 45549295 44959327 44799351
            44799384 44869417 45609567 46139636 46599663 47219543=20


=3D =3D =3D
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