Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 13 2024 08:20:04

ACUS48 KWNS 130819
SWOD48
SPC AC 130818

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Western CONUS upper ridging is expected to build throughout much of
the week, with this expansive ridging likely extending into much of
western Canada by the end of the week. Modest upper troughing is
anticipated over much of the central and eastern CONUS. A series of
shortwave troughs will likely move through this upper troughing,
helping to push a cold front gradually southward/eastward from
D4/Tuesday through D7/Friday.

Thunderstorms are anticipated along the front, with strong buoyancy
and moderate shear potentially supporting strong to severe storms
from the OH Valley into the Northeast on D4/Tuesday. Some severe
potential may linger across the Northeast on D5/Wednesday before the
front clears the region. After D5/Wednesday, progression of the
front will displace the better low-level moisture south of the
stronger flow aloft, limiting the severe-storm potential across much
of the central and eastern CONUS from D6/Thursday through
D8/Saturday. The only exception is across the High Plains, where
modest low-level moisture beneath vertically veering wind profiles
could support a few strong to severe storms.

...Mosier.. 07/13/2024

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