Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1591
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 13 2024 04:21:34

ACUS11 KWNS 130421
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130420=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-130515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1591
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Areas affected...the northwest NE Panhandle and far southwest SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 130420Z - 130515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A pair of strong to marginally severe storms may persist
through about 06Z, but an overall weakening trend is expected
overnight.

DISCUSSION...A couple of more robust storms are ongoing near the
WY/SD/NE border area to the west-southwest of a weakening cluster
over southwest SD. This activity appears to be supported by stronger
effective bulk shear despite ever-increasing MLCIN and displacement
from greater low-level moisture across central to southern NE. A
branch of the southerly low-level jet as sampled by the GLD VWP
appears to further aiding these storms that are capable of producing
isolated severe hail and wind. Evening CAM guidance is insistent on
this activity decaying rapidly overnight as this lobe of the
low-level jet weakens, while the TX/OK Panhandles to central KS
branch dominates during the early morning.

...Grams/Gleason.. 07/13/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7f645-Y9XnUjxNVnCObnyS-MhPPYI5uM80kQITAXLtz41W9fLy945Bd-5LgsjMqfzWDGGmtqL=
vLfdVOKbAhx7ji1m6k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43230379 43220252 43050190 42730162 42320184 42190238
            42230302 42440370 42830409 43230379=20


=3D =3D =3D
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