Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 13 2024 00:38:32

ACUS01 KWNS 130038
SWODY1
SPC AC 130036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind and hail are expected over the northern and
central Great Plains tonight, especially North Dakota. Gusty winds
are also possible across northwest Arizona.

....01z Update...

A weak short-wave trough has flattened the upper ridge over the
northern High Plains and currently extends along the AB/SK border
into extreme northeast MT. This feature is forecast to dig a bit
southeast during the overnight period and suppress the height field
over ND as it begins to turn toward the upper MS Valley. Scattered
thunderstorms have developed ahead of the short wave with the most
robust convection now arcing from extreme southwest MB-western
ND-northeast WY. While the strongest LLJ segment will remain focused
across the central High Plains, steep lapse rates and modest
mid-high-level flow will support updraft organization and some
supercell threat. Latest radar data supports this and large hail may
be common with the strongest storms this evening.

Strong boundary-layer heating across the higher terrain of northern
AZ has contributed to scattered robust convection that is now
propagating toward lower elevations. Some clustering has developed
and sufficient precip/cold pool may drive this activity toward
portions of the lower CO River Valley. Strong winds are the primary
concern given the high-based nature of these storms.

...Darrow.. 07/13/2024

$$

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