Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1588
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 12 2024 23:52:31

ACUS11 KWNS 122352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122352=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-130145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1588
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Areas affected...western/central ND and far northeast MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 122352Z - 130145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...In the wake of a decaying supercell, additional storm
development is expected through dusk which may consolidate into a
slow-moving cluster. Isolated severe hail and wind will remain
possible through at least mid-evening.

DISCUSSION...A lone discrete supercell produced a multi-county swath
of large hail between 1-1.75 inches in diameter for a couple hours
in northwest ND. This cell has weakened, with renewed convective
development occurring to its west along its trailing outflow near
the McKenzie/Dunn County line. This updraft will have the best
near-term potential to produce large hail and localized severe wind
gusts along the western portion of the tight buoyancy gradient.
Additional, higher-based updrafts persist across southwest ND and in
the post-frontal boundary near the northeast MT border with SK.
Recent HRRR runs remain insistent on potential for consolidating
storms and a slow-moving cluster or two evolving this evening. This
would suggest the large hail threat will be greatest through about
sunset, with localized severe gusts persisting beyond. Still, with a
relatively modest combination of deep-layer shear and large scale
forcing for ascent, confidence in greater than isolated severe
coverage remains low.

...Grams/Gleason.. 07/12/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7Lih79WjDKAPhw4d3J9t2uxawSDtUOPtFqM-97SKqsscFzH7hq0oA-e9_Kmvi6PIcyCMfooUV=
Kzs7EkcJqFc14dpoOw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...

LAT...LON   48940122 48470052 47220047 45880163 45780307 46690377
            47720449 48450602 48990659 48940122=20


=3D =3D =3D
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