Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 12 2024 20:02:01 ACUS01 KWNS 122001 SWODY1 SPC AC 122000 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A SMALL PART OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible over the northern and central Great Plains from late afternoon into tonight, and this afternoon from the Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley. A Marginal Risk remains in effect for parts of the northern Plains. Storms will form later this afternoon within the surface trough near the eastern borders of MT and WY, with locally severe gusts or marginal hail possible. Additional storms may move across eastern ND into northwest MN late tonight into early Saturday morning, as the SK/MB upper trough skirts the area. To the southwest, isolated storms that develop over northern parts of the Mogollon Rim may produce localized strong gusts later this afternoon as outflows push southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer. Precipitable water values up to 0.75" should be sufficient for outflow production with a general west/southwest motion. ...Jewell.. 07/12/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024/ ....Northern Plains... Broad diffluent northwesterly mid-level flow is present today across the northern Plains states. Full sunshine over the region will result in hot surface temperatures and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles from eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas. Most morning CAM solutions suggest scattered high-based thunderstorm development by late afternoon, with activity spreading slowly eastward through the evening. Locally gusty/damaging winds are the main concern with these storms. Greater instability exists farther east in ND/SD/NE but will remain capped in most areas, unless congealing outflow from the west can intercept the higher theta-e air with some risk of wind/hail in the strongest cells. ....Southern MO/IL... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a remnant MCV over southern MO tracking slowly eastward. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE ahead of this system will likely result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and convection should remain rather disorganized. However, the strongest storms could pose a risk of locally gusty winds. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .