Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 12 2024 19:37:12

AWUS01 KWNH 121937
FFGMPD
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-130030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0612
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Areas affected...Coastal NJ...Coastal Delmarva Peninsula...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121935Z - 130030Z

SUMMARY...Strong storms with ample deep moisture flux convergence
supportive of 2"/hr rates likely to cross over areas already
experiencing 2-5" totals this morning with ongoing flooding.=20=20
Additional 2-3" over the next few hours likely to reaggravate
flooding conditions locally.=20=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E and KDOX RADAR show a mature cluster of
thunderstorms lifting through the Delmarva into S Delaware with a
few scattered thunderstorms trailing through the Virginia portion
of the peninsula.  These cells continue to feed on remaining
modestly unstable air with 3-5 degrees spread in
temperature/dewpoints but still in the upper to mid 70s and nearly
moist adiabatic lapse rates; suggests some MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg hugging the coastal zone through central NJ.  The
moisture axis remains just west of the active convective line, but
stronger 25-30kts of confluent 925-850mb flow will continue to
provide the moisture flux convergence to maintain convection.  Mid
to upper level right enhance ascent/outflow are waning a bit, but
should maintain activity for a few more hours.  Given the core of
the moisture axis is at or above 2.25"; the instability axis
aligns along the gradient, but well within the 2" total PWats and
while oblique, the convergence will provide efficient rainfall
production especially given fairly high (15Kft) freezing levels to
generate a mode of tropical showers with limited energy loss to
ice production/melting.   As such, rates of 2-2.5"/hr are likely
the norm.  As such spots of additional 2-3" are possible,
especially if convergence remains strong along the upwind side
further south along the southern peninsula.

Surface and RADAR analysis also note earlier outflow boundary
across S NJ from some weak cold pool, that may be more orthogonal
to the low level ascent pattern allowing for additional dynamic
ascent to maintain risk even as local environment starts to
stabilize.   So there is some concern, cell motions/tracks may
favor propagation along or just off-shore, but there is enough
uncertainty in motions that any potential overlap with earlier
rounds of heavy rainfall would likely result in reaggravation of
flooding conditions bit it rapid inundation or flashy/quick moving
in nature over the next few hours.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!52Wypm3cOKyZabnaGRqZGtuugPD6SI-CMkBXVW5ayoMYKtcoNemItbIgfJ6JxIudq4gM=
NPmZUWQQ-bwfaCOcUt62TBQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40127421 39967401 39427431 38957467 37987518=20
            37127581 37347604 38177609 39137557 39667505=20
            40057463=20

=3D =3D =3D
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