Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 12 2024 05:45:23

ACUS01 KWNS 120545
SWODY1
SPC AC 120543

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible over the northern and
central Great Plains from late afternoon into tonight.

....Northern/central Great Plains...
Hot temperatures from the upper 90s to 105 will be prevalent near a
surface trough extending from the MT/ND border area to eastern CO.
Rich boundary-layer moisture will be displaced farther east across
the central to eastern Dakotas to the Lower MO Valley, beneath an
elevated mixed layer and modest capping. Scattered high-based
thunderstorms will most likely develop during the late afternoon to
early evening, within the uncapped and deeply mixed environment
along the surface trough.

In the mid-levels, the region will lie within a modest northwesterly
flow regime between a stout anticyclone over the southern Great
Basin and a low-amplitude shortwave trough in the eastern Great
Lakes. This flow orientation should result in outflow-dominated
cells/clusters impinging on greater buoyancy downstream. This may
sustain a severe wind threat past sunset into the lower plains. In
addition, a modest low-level warm advection regime tonight within a
conditionally favorable supercell environment could support a threat
for large hail, similar to what occurred on Thursday evening in the
Kansas City Metro vicinity. Spatial confidence is low given the
expected weak large-scale forcing for ascent. Still, have broadened
the level 1-MRGL risk eastward to account for both possibilities.

...Grams/Moore.. 07/12/2024

$$

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