Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 11 2024 17:21:49

ACUS02 KWNS 111721
SWODY2
SPC AC 111720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Locally damaging gusts are possible over parts of the northern
Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Hail will also be possible
over North Dakota.

....Synopsis...
An upper ridge will expand further across the Great Basin and Four
Corners states on Friday, with gradually increasing midlevel
westerlies across the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, a weak
positive-tile upper trough will lift out of the lower Great Lakes
and into southern Quebec, with rising heights over New England.
Overnight, the influence of a broad trough across the Canadian
prairies may result in strengthening flow and subtle height falls
over MT into Saturday morning.

At the surface, weak high pressure will extend from the Great Lakes
southwestward along the MS Valley and into the northern Gulf of
Mexico, and over much of the interior West beneath the upper ridge.
A surface trough will deepen over the northern and central High
Plains coincident with peak heating, with modest westerly winds over
MT into the western Dakotas as boundary-layer mixing occurs.

....Northern High Plains...
Strong heating will lead to an uncapped air mass within the surface
trough, with scattered convection likely to form after 21Z over far
eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas and NE. Models differ with
coverage through the evening, but prominent outflows should allow
for a few clusters of storms to persist across the Dakotas and NE,
and perhaps into northwest MN late, supported by a weak northwest
flow aloft/southerly 850 mb flow regime. Cells that persist into the
moister air mass east of the deeply mixed air mass may produce brief
hail with the stronger cores.

...Jewell.. 07/11/2024

$$

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