Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jul 11 2024 05:47:00 ACUS01 KWNS 110546 SWODY1 SPC AC 110545 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST AZ... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts are possible across southeast Arizona between 3-8 PM MST. ....Southeast AZ... Northeasterly mid-level flow is consistently progged to strengthen, southeast of a stout anticyclone over the southern Great Basin. This combined with slightly greater lower-level moisture/PW should yield a conditionally favorable threat for severe wind gusts centered on the greater Tucson vicinity. 00Z HREF guidance suggests at least scattered thunderstorm development should occur over parts of the Mogollon Rim and higher terrain of southeast AZ. This activity should overspread parts of the I-10/19 corridors into the lower deserts during the late afternoon to early evening. Whether it can congeal into a severe wind/haboob-producing MCS is unclear, but a series of dry microbursts capable of widely scattered severe wind gusts is plausible. ....Central High Plains to the northern Great Plains... In the mid-levels, between a stout anticyclone over the southern Great Basin and a low-amplitude shortwave trough in the southwest Great Lakes region, a belt of moderate northwesterly flow is anticipated at peak heating. Modest boundary-layer moisture will be the main limiting factor for coverage/intensity, but should be adequate for at least isolated thunderstorms along a weak surface trough. A rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profile should support sporadic severe wind gusts as the main threat. But isolated severe hail will be possible in the western SD/NE vicinity where the mid/upper-level wind profile favors transient updraft rotation in conjunction with somewhat greater buoyancy. ....IN to southeast KS... Sporadic strong storms may briefly approach marginal severe thresholds during the late afternoon through sunset. Overall threat appears too localized to warrant a level 1-MRGL risk. ...Grams/Dean.. 07/11/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .