Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 10 2024 19:50:29 ACUS01 KWNS 101950 SWODY1 SPC AC 101948 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds remain possible over parts of the Northeast, with damaging gusts or marginal hail southward into the Mid-Atlantic States. ....Northeast to Mid Atlantic... Scattered supercells, some possibly tornadic, persist mainly over parts of central and northern NY, with other cells developing southward into PA. Low-lever shear remains strongest and most favorable along the effective warm front extending from near the Lake Ontario lake breeze into northern NY and across central VT and NH. Here, 0-1 km SRH is around 150 m2/s2, which when combined with the 70s F dewpoints is resulting in a favorable tornado environment. While low-level shear is weaker farther south, the very moist and unstable air mass along with deep-layer effective shear of 40-50 kt will continue to support supercells into PA through the afternoon, with damaging wind gusts even farther south into VA and vicinity. For short term information see mesoscale discussion 1471. ...Jewell.. 07/10/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024/ ....Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ....Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ....New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .