Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1569
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 10 2024 16:52:56

ACUS11 KWNS 101652
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101652=20
MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-101845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Areas affected...South-central Pennsylvania...central
Maryland...northern/central Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 101652Z - 101845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered storms will pose a threat of
mainly damaging winds and a tornado or two. A severe thunderstorm
watch is likely for parts of Virginia into south-central
Pennsylvania.

DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass is in place across the
Mid-Atlantic. Dewpoints are in generally in the low/mid 70s F.
Morning observed soundings from the region suggest even limited
heating would lead to surface-based destabilization. Current surface
observations already show temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F
which should be sufficient. Visible satellite shows a few updrafts
beginning to deepen within the Blue Ridge. Modest mid-level ascent
will occur this afternoon, particularly for northern Virginia into
south-central Pennsylvania. Coupled with the approach of a cold
front from the west, widely scattered to scattered storms are
expected. The greatest potential for supercells will be in
south-central Pennsylvania into central Maryland/northern Virginia
where effective shear will be 35-40 kts. Farther south, multicells
will be the predominant mode. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary hazard this afternoon. A low-end tornado threat will also be
present for northern Virginia into south-central Pennsylvania, where
low-level shear will be slightly greater nearer to the surface low.
This is also supported by KCCX/KLWX VAD data. A severe thunderstorm
watch is likely for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, though uncertainty is
greater with southern extent.

...Wendt/Guyer.. 07/10/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7DNK5QfPQRhmC4Qy0ooMQuEry01mczHnwE1SEBlYx5U_P129p2R9_n0xfrrSXl6kNguuf1hIf=
dCu6hA2tvaO4HfXWEo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   38097711 37257791 37107913 37297948 37917931 38537884
            39837828 40317753 40327686 39697656 38977666 38097711=20


=3D =3D =3D
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