Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 10 2024 16:38:24 ACUS01 KWNS 101638 SWODY1 SPC AC 101636 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ....SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, especially across parts of upstate New York and Pennsylvania into northern New England. ....Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States and New England... A moist air mass (lower to middle 70s F surface dewpoints) resides across the region, along/south of a northward-shifting warm front that should closely approach the international border, ahead of a northeastward-progressive shortwave trough and the remnants of Beryl. Thunderstorms are already increasing and intensifying across the region at midday, and a mixed mode of storms are expected across region, with the most supercell-favorable hodographs and greatest tornado potential expected to particularly focus across upstate New York and possibly into parts of Vermont. A more multicellular/pulse-storm mode is expected southward into Virginia/Delmarva and possibly parts of North Carolina, with wind damage as the most common hazard. ....Iowa/eastern Nebraska/northern Missouri... A clipper-type shortwave trough will progress southeastward over the region today coincident with a 30-35 kt belt of northwesterly mid-level flow. Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase, particularly near a weak surface trough, and become increasingly surface-based into mid-afternoon, initially across Iowa/eastern Nebraska. At least isolated large hail is expected, along with the potential for severe-caliber wind gusts. Beneath cooling mid-level temperatures (-12C at 500 mb), surface dewpoints mostly in the lower/middle 60s F will support preconvective MLCAPE values as high as 1500-2000 J/kg with minimal boundary-layer inhibition by early afternoon. Mostly a multicellular storm mode is expected, with storms gradually weakening into mid/late evening as they move southeastward into and across northern Missouri. ....New Mexico/Far West Texas... To the east of the upper ridge centered over the Southwest Deserts and Lower Colorado River Valley, a belt of moderately strong north-northeasterly flow aloft will persist over the region. Thunderstorms are expected to again develop over the mountains/higher terrain of central and southern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon, and drift generally southward. Steep lapse rates, MLCAPE potentially to 500-800 J/kg and dry sub-cloud layers will support some potentially severe storms capable of hail and severe-caliber wind gusts this afternoon through early evening. ...Guyer/Wendt.. 07/10/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .