Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 10 2024 07:22:52

ACUS03 KWNS 100722
SWODY3
SPC AC 100721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe potential currently appears too low to highlight
with severe probabilities this outlook.

....Synopsis...
A pair of low-amplitude mid-level troughs will traverse the
Northeast and Upper MS Valley as an upper-level anticyclone
continues to build over the Interior West, into the Plains on Day 3
(Friday). Surface lee troughing ahead of the MS Valley mid-level
trough will support a broad fetch of rich low-level moisture beneath
an eastward-advecting EML plume. At least mid 70s F surface
dewpoints beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support
strong buoyancy (i.e. 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE) across much of the
Upper MS Valley by afternoon peak heating. Given the overall
low-amplitude nature of the mid-level trough overspreading the
region, deep-layer shear and ascent for organized convection are not
overly strong (hence no severe probabilities introduced this
outlook). Nonetheless, the degree of instability suggests that any
storms that can form in this environment could at least be
pulse-severe in nature. The 00Z ECMWF also appears to show a
southward-surging MCS across the international border into the Upper
MS Valley sometime after sunset. If guidance consensus shows a more
organized convective scenario over the Upper MS Valley, severe
probabilities may need to be introduced.

...Squitieri.. 07/10/2024

$$

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