Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1562
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 09 2024 04:27:43

ACUS11 KWNS 090427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090427=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-090630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1562
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 515...

Valid 090427Z - 090630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 515 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues across central and eastern
Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...TS Beryl circulation has progressed into northeast TX,
just southwest of Texarkana, and is gradually weakening as it ejects
northeast into the lower MS Valley. Strongest low-level shear is now
focused across central AR where 0-3km SRH at LZK is on the order of
650 m2/s2. Even so, low-level shear has gradually decreased ahead of
this feature, and nocturnal cooling is notably affecting buoyancy in
the lower troposphere. As a result, supercell structures are
considerably fewer than earlier this evening, though several
embedded longer-lived circulations are noted within a larger cluster
of convection currently lifting north across central AR. Tornado
threat continues with this activity and a local extension to Tornado
Watch 0515 may be needed by 05z.

...Darrow.. 07/09/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4rA0iuOYty5ZZQ6ODlwWKtmOotSncT0Rlg22vk052IjorE25ybJK6cA5Pgy6hKYcOE2a3fQW6=
NRqouQxwJQXTr3CEq4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34569313 34979288 35349229 35629132 35579063 35169019
            34539047 34039118 33949216 34109299 34569313=20


=3D =3D =3D
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