Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 09 2024 04:16:39

AWUS01 KWNH 090416
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-090800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0598
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 AM EDT Tue Jul 09 2024

Areas affected...Far Northeast AL...Northern GA...Far Southeast TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090415Z - 090800Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving areas of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms may continue for a few more hours across areas of
far northeast AL, northern GA and far southeast TN.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows a broken cluster of
showers and thunderstorms still tending to linger over areas of
far northeast AL, northern GA and far southeast TN. The convection
which has been locally anchored near some of the higher terrain of
the southern Appalachians over the last couple of hours has been
producing some very high rainfall rates that have been upwards of
1.5 to 2+ inches/hour.

The convection has been aided by proximity of a quasi-stationary
front draped across the region and MLCAPE values of 1000+ J/kg
still remain pooled along it. This coupled with localized
orographics/upslope flow near the terrain and at least modest
low-level convergence should promote the convection lingering for
a few more hours before then weakening as instability is further
exhausted.

The 00Z HREF guidance along with the latest radar and satellite
trends suggest an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain cannot be ruled
out locally. This will especially be the case over northern GA
where convective cloud tops remain rather cold and suggestive of
stronger lingering updrafts. Therefore, some additional pockets of
flash flooding will be possible over the next few hours.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_prI4QhsOb6M40LhIgT8LRZ8XRv21PtYSwcAEd0658mbOxCaL6syw3cQwHsTLNOwfyZz=
4921Z7sMPge2a5XsEIp3juc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35388434 35298376 35108332 34688327 34458397=20
            34468542 34748592 35138569 35358499=20

=3D =3D =3D
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