Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 09 2024 00:51:09

ACUS01 KWNS 090051
SWODY1
SPC AC 090049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, will be
possible this evening into tonight from the Ark-La-Tex into the mid
Mississippi Valley.

....Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
The center of Tropical Cyclone Beryl is currently located in
northeast Texas. A distinct rain band associated with Beryl, is near
and along an axis of instability from southern Arkansas southward
across central Louisiana. This rainband is situated along the
northern and eastern edge of a 50 of 60 knot low-level speed max.
This speed max is being sampled by the Shreveport WSR-88D VWP, which
has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
between 450 and 500 m2/s2. This strong low-level shear will continue
a tornado threat this evening across northern Louisiana and
Arkansas, where a few tornadoes will be possible with semi-discrete
cells embedded in the rain band. As the center of Beryl moves into
southwestern Arkansas late this evening, the tornado threat will
shift north-northeastward into the eastern Ozarks and mid
Mississippi Valley. The tornado threat should become more isolated
with time from late evening into the overnight period as instability
gradually decreases across the region.

...Broyles.. 07/09/2024

$$

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