Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 08 2024 22:05:06

AWUS01 KWNH 082205
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0596
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
603 PM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...Ark-La-Tex into western/central LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 082200Z - 090400Z

Summary...Numerous to widespread instances of flash flooding
expected to continue in association with Tropical Storm Beryl.

Discussion...While Tropical Storm Beryl continues to gradually
weaken as it moves farther inland this evening, the flash flood
threat continues unabated as extratropical transition bolsters
heavy rainfall to the north and east/southeast of the circulation
(from the core of the tropical moisture and from a persistent
feeder band, respectively). Precipitable water values of 2.2-2.6
inches (near record levels, per SPC sounding climatology) are
supporting hourly accumulations of 1-3" (per MRMS estimates), and
continued training/repeating of these rates will result in
additional totals of 3-6" through 04z (with the greatest coverage
in association with the core of the tropical moisture through the
Ark-La-Tex, and more localized in a narrow corridor from the
feeder band across western/central LA). Given the latest
observational trends and accompanying hi-res model guidance,
numerous to widespread instances of flash flooding are expected to
continue in association with Tropical Storm Beryl (particularly
across the Ark-La-Tex, where up to 3-6" of rainfall has already
fallen, and more localized/confined across western/central LA
where little rainfall has fallen thus far). Impacts are expected
to be most significant over hydrophobic urbanized terrain and
flood-prone low-lying areas.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_VBwDOyGd4BUBWnecfEkGf5WUUkEJpsOSZ0yd7bHGdzoWDGNR7pOJjl2pNNmj8Kj7_pQ=
QWXeKLj7vliDOa8fwHEIOVo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LCH...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34679332 33719238 32309207 30769210 29479293=20
            29569396 30739361 31709367 31719475 31889562=20
            32329603 34069546=20

=3D =3D =3D
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