Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 08 2024 16:31:39 ACUS01 KWNS 081631 SWODY1 SPC AC 081630 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ....SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are possible today and tonight in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from eastern Texas into western/northern Louisiana and southern/central Arkansas. ....East Texas/ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... Tropical Storm Beryl will continue north-northeastward today across southeast/east Texas and toward the ArkLaTex tonight, with its eastern-peripheral low/mid-level wind field remaining strong through tonight. Embedded circulations continue to occur within the modestly broken convective bands, that will northward-transition and potentially diurnally expand somewhat from east Texas into western/northern Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex vicinity this evening. Several tornadoes are possible especially through early evening, but some tornado/wind damage risk will linger/transition northeastward through late tonight across additional parts of Arkansas/Mid-South and Mississippi Valley. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1558. ....Southwest Texas... A cold front will continue to surge southward across the region, with stronger heating and moderate destabilization occurring across parts of the Transpecos and Big Bend vicinity in the presence of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and differential heating over higher terrain should lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon, with some of these storms potentially posing large hail and strong wind gust risks. ....Northern New Mexico/far Southern Colorado... A considerable westward surge of moisture has occurred since yesterday, with the 12z Albuquerque sounding featuring 0.80 inch Precipitable Water. Terrain influences/differential heating over interior New Mexico/southern Colorado will lead to increasing thunderstorm development this afternoon in the presence of as much as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storm organization will likely be aided by a moderately strong belt of north-northwesterly winds aloft. Isolated instances of severe hail are expected this afternoon through early evening, along with the possibility of severe-caliber wind gusts. ....Northern Lower Michigan/Lake Michigan vicinity... Gradual destabilization is expected this afternoon in the wake of early day cloud cover and some outflow across the middle part of Lower Michigan. This be within a moist air mass (mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of an eastward-moving/weakening front, as a shortwave trough otherwise moves eastward over Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Modestly long/semi-straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective shear could support some sustained storms/multicells, with a couple instances of wind damage/sub-severe hail possible through early evening. ...Guyer/Wendt.. 07/08/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .