Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 08 2024 16:24:30

AWUS01 KWNH 081624
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-082223-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0593
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1224 PM EDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Texas...Western Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081623Z - 082223Z

Summary...Considerable flash and urban flooding will continue this
afternoon as Tropical Storm Beryl spreads very heavy rainfall
inland across eastern Texas and far western Louisiana.

Discussion...At 15Z, Tropical Storm Beryl was analyzed by the
National Hurricane Center at 29.8N 95.7W, about 20 miles northwest
of Houston, with a forward motion of 13 kts. As Beryl tracks
inland, regional radar mosaic depicts intense convection around
Beryl's inner core, alongside organized rain bands training along
the north and east flank of the storm.

As highlighted in MPD 592, this banded activity remains tied to a
steady influx of convergent and unstable low-level inflow from the
Gulf of Mexico, with a broad axis 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and
2.5-2.6" PWATS noted upstream of the convection. Recent VWP
profiles from HGX and LCH also show 300 m2/s2 of 0-3 KM SRH and
40-50 kts of effective bulk shear to dynamically enhance rainfall
efficiency of individual cells within the bands (see SPC Tornado
Watch 514 for more on the severe threat).

Through the afternoon, very heavy rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr will
continue within the most intense bands around the north and east
side of Beryl, leading to 5-7" of rainfall across Eastern TX. This
will maintain the threat for considerable flash and urban flooding
for at least the next six hours across the region.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7EvAGv5v6T-tXOfN3bKl6FpKpKIwzrAjvSXu_-fy0zwGSskypwWsRCNsULNs37fGmB19=
ndlCf5-15VdGIKJQEgJXgVY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32829524 32659416 31769375 30559336 29599385=20
            29449457 29989522 29939626 30269657 30979658=20
            32079610=20

=3D =3D =3D
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