Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 08 2024 07:16:03

ACUS03 KWNS 080715
SWODY3
SPC AC 080714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK...

....SUMMARY...
A couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes may accompany the remnants
of Beryl across portions of northern Pennsylvania into southern New
York on Wednesday.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will progress toward the Northeast as a mid-level
ridge persists across the western CONUS on Wednesday. A surface
cyclone (i.e. the remnants of Beryl) will remain coupled to the
mid-level trough and will track from the OH Valley to the northern
Appalachians through the day. Medium range guidance indicates that
rich low-level moisture (mid 70s F dewpoints) will advect ahead of
the cyclone, promoting 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical winds veering and
modestly strengthening with height ahead of the cyclone will promote
40+ kts of effective bulk shear and curved, elongated hodographs.
Multicells and supercells are possible, potentially accompanied by a
risk for at least a couple of damaging gusts or tornadoes. Questions
remain regarding how steep the tropospheric lapse rates will be,
potentially limiting the severe threat. A Category 1/Marginal risk
has been introduced for now, but higher severe probabilities may be
needed in future outlooks if guidance shows strong low-level shear
amid greater buoyancy than is currently forecast.

...Squitieri.. 07/08/2024

$$

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