Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 08 2024 03:12:23

AWUS01 KWNH 080312
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-080910-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0588
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1110 PM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Areas affected...Southeast CO...Far Southeast KS...Northeast
NM...TX/OK Panhandles

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080310Z - 080910Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
overnight hours and should be sufficiently organized and heavy
enough to support some additional isolated to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery continues to
show the development and expansion of heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity over southeast CO and into portions of
northeast NM. The convection is being facilitated by the arrival
of a cold front and supporting shortwave energy aloft along with a
moderately buoyant airmass characterized by MLCAPE values of 1000
to 1500 J/kg.

Over the last couple of hours, the convection has become a bit
more concentrated especially over southeast CO where low-level
upslope flow and frontal convergence along the eastern slopes of
the Sangre De Cristo mountains has yielded a stronger orographic
component to the convective evolution. Some cloud tops have been
as cool as -60 to -65C with some of the stronger updrafts.

A consolidation of convective clusters can be expected over the
next few hours, with convection taking on a more organized MCS
evolution that should propagate down to the southeast overnight
and gradually advance more out into the open High Plains.

The latest 00Z HREF guidance supports convection becoming a bit
focused over the next few hours over areas of far southeast CO and
also into portions of northeast NM, with an expectation of locally
heavier rainfall rates that will likely reach 1 to 2 inches/hour.
This activity may brush areas of far southwest KS, but will likely
advance in a forward propagating manner eventually into the TX/OK
Panhandle.

Some localized storm totals of 3 to 4 inches will be possible
where some of these cells locally train over the same area, and
these rains may foster some isolated to widely scattered instances
of flash flooding.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8mDPfMVUzcPFebpnfyxCJByYj_q5FxD-7NWIGSYIS6ib3lZAUKke8KvPMbLxS7N7SE8M=
MzXUYufDPh3XB22x9pWentU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38320342 37710174 36650093 35620087 34930149=20
            34770261 35230370 36350471 37460497 38140458=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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