Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 07 2024 17:35:30 ACUS02 KWNS 071735 SWODY2 SPC AC 071733 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TX...WESTERN LA...SOUTHWEST AR... ....SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible on Monday from east Texas into western Louisiana and southwest Arkansas, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl. ....Synopsis... Tropical Cyclone Beryl is currently forecast to strengthen into a hurricane Sunday evening, and make landfall somewhere along the middle TX Coast early Monday morning, shortly before the start of the D2/Monday forecast period. Beryl is forecast to take on more of a north-northeasterly motion during the day on Monday across east TX, as it begins to become absorbed within a larger-scale mid/upper-level trough moving across parts of the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, and Great Plains. A weak cold front will accompany this trough across parts of the mid/upper MS Valley and Midwest/Great Lakes. Farther southwest, an outflow-reinforced cold front will move through parts of the southern High Plains into southern NM and far west TX. ....LA/east TX into AR and southern MO/IL... At least a few tornadoes will be possible from east TX into western LA and southwest AR on Monday, in association with Tropical Cyclone Beryl. Some expansion to the 5% tornado probabilities has been made based on the latest guidance and NHC forecasts. A corridor of greater tornado probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on trends regarding the track, intensity, and size of Beryl. Increasing low/midlevel flow along the eastern flank of Beryl will spread across an already very moist environment across parts of east TX and western LA through the day, with tropical moisture eventually spreading northward into parts of AR, southern MO, and the mid-MS Valley by afternoon/evening. While heating will be limited closer to the immediate track, some modest destabilization will be possible to the east/northeast of the center through the day. Strengthening low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH increasing above 200 m2/s2) will support potential for a few tornadoes with at least transient supercells, especially within the northeast quadrant of Beryl during the day into the early evening. Some tornado threat could spread as far north as the Ozarks region Monday night as Beryl continues northeastward. Additionally, well in advance of Beryl, a few strong storms could develop from northern AR into southeast MO and southern IL during the afternoon, within a moist and moderately buoyant environment. Midlevel southwesterly flow will be sufficiently strong to support modest storm organization, with a threat of locally damaging gusts. ....Parts of Far West into southwest TX... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon across parts of the TX Trans-Pecos vicinity. Relatively moist low-level easterly flow will support both favorable low-level moisture and somewhat elongated hodographs across the region. Moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a few stronger cells/clusters, including the potential for a supercell or two with a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. ....Parts of the upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across a broad region of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, in association with the mid/upper-level trough gradually moving eastward across the region. Modest buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could support a few stronger storms, and severe probabilities may eventually be needed if a corridor of somewhat more focused potential becomes apparent. ...Dean.. 07/07/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .