Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 07 2024 14:20:46

AWUS01 KWNH 071420
FFGMPD
OKZ000-071749-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0582
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1020 AM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Areas affected...Central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071419Z - 071749Z

Summary...Training portion of an MCS continues over Central OK
this morning. The flash flood threat will continue with periods of
cell training containing rates upwards of 2-2.5"/hr.

Discussion...Radar across Central OK depicts a training band of
thunderstorms south and east of the OKC Metro containing dual-pol
estimated rainfall rates upwards of 2-2.3"/hr. This activity
remains forced by a weakening--but still sufficient 15-25 kt
southerly low-level jet ascending a well defined cold pool on the
southern fringe of the MCS, alongside a shortwave over
West-Central OK. The 12z sounding out of OUN highlights plenty of
instability and moisture available to support efficient
convection, including 2000 J/kg MUCAPE, 1.83" PWATS, and highly
saturated profiles through ~600 mb. Ahead of the training
convection, recent mesoanalysis also shows slow Corfidi vectors
(10-15 kts) within a region of diffluent thickness, which suggests
lengthened residence times of these cells. Thus, this training
activity is expected to continue in the short term before the
shortwave passage and weakening LLJ diminish the activity and
allow for more forward propagation.

CAM guidance continues to initialize the ongoing activity poorly,
generally being too slow, displaced to the northeast, and
underdone with coverage. However, given the overall efficiency and
periods of training, additional rainfall amounts of 2-3" appear
reasonable through 17z across Central OK. This will continue to
support a threat of scattered flash flooding through at least the
next 3-4 hours.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7gYGau_xIw4VxBp3VBmB2XVTVL4WfmZJmbf3M_4NkBigVeu3raD79AN9dgtQM69oGv-q=
dx-31MZYw5MYnbRHmK5AEtI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36589718 36439639 35699610 34839678 34759761=20
            35039807 35529817 36159788=20

=3D =3D =3D
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