Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jul 07 2024 04:04:37 AWUS01 KWNH 070404 FFGMPD OKZ000-KSZ000-071003- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0580 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1203 AM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Areas affected...Southwest KS...Far Northwest OK Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 070403Z - 071003Z SUMMARY...Localized training and backbuilding of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight across portions of southwest KS which could eventually edge into far northwest OK toward dawn. Some additional areas of flash flooding will be possible. DISCUSSION...The late-evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with dual-pol radar shows areas of locally training and backbuilding showers and thunderstorms across portions of southwest KS. Occasional overshooting top activity and cloud top temperatures to about -65C have been witnessed over the last couple of hours as the overall convective mass tends to lose some additional latitude with an outflow boundary settling farther south ahead of the convection. There is a rather strong southerly low-level jet of 40+ kts overrunning the outflow boundary, and the transport of relatively moist and unstable air up over top of the cold pool is favoring the persistence of the broken northwest to southeast oriented bands of convection. MUCAPE values are on the order of about 500 to 1000 J/kg, but there is rather strong level of kinematic energy aloft with enhanced shear helping to favor stronger and persistent updrafts despite the relatively modest instability parameters. GOES-E IR/WV imagery shows a shortwave trough dropping southeast toward the central Rockies and High Plains which should favor the arrival of some stronger upper-level jet dynamics overnight, and this coupled with proximity of a wave of low pressure and a frontal zone also should favor areas of convection that will tend to redevelop and continue to locally backbuild and train over the same area. The low-level jet also will likely tend to increase a bit more over top of the existing cold pool and may reach as high as 50 kts by 06Z. All of this will favor convection that should remain fairly well organized and capable of producing heavy rainfall rates. The PWs are locally near 1.25 inches, and the rainfall rates should continue to reach 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger storms. This is supported by the 00Z HREF guidance, and some additional storm totals by later tonight may reach 3 to 4 inches. Generally the heaviest rains should focus over southwest KS, but it is possible that the cold pool may tend to focus far enough south to bring convection into far northwest OK toward dawn. Some additional areas of flash flooding will be possible where these heavier rains focus. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Pd4C1Mlfn5T9X47ocp7UXlTavne4d1hdFyXjwF_83Wc7VaaUoKK5iLDhykjQAMzwgi4= 043hjr-FmIkPIbCcSWL-hFY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GLD...OUN... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38670083 38439996 37759865 37139843 36829886=20 36789967 37050088 37600161 38190172 38570149=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .