Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 06 2024 23:05:34

AWUS01 KWNH 062305
FFGMPD
TXZ000-070300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0578
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
704 PM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Areas affected...Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062304Z - 070300Z

SUMMARY...Clashing gust fronts associated with 2 separate areas of
convection may cause flash flooding as rates approach 3 inches per
hour at times.

DISCUSSION...Gust fronts associated with 2 separate areas of
convection...one in central Texas, and the other moving WSW
parallel to the coast are likely to clash over the next hour or 2.
With PWATs in the area still above 2 inches and SBCAPE values
between 2,000 and 3,000 J/kg, expect additional convection to
interact around and east of San Antonio into the evening hours.
The convection with both areas of storms have had peak rainfall
rates exceed 3 inches per hour...though most of the convection has
supported radar estimated rates between 1 and 2 inches per hour.
The clashing gust fronts may make for an area of slow-moving or
stationary convection...which may gradually drift west with time
as T.S. Beryl's increasing influence supports the storms moving
west down I-10 towards San Antonio.

While soil moisture analyses from NASA Sport indicated soils
around Austin and San Antonio and points east have been dry
lately, with about average soil moisture levels for this time of
year...the prevalence of highly efficient warm rain processes
within the ongoing convection may exceed local FFGs, resulting in
isolated to widely scattered flash flooding. Any convection that
impacts San Antonio proper may cause urban flash flooding, while
outside of the cities, small stream and minor flash flooding is
possible into the evening hours.

CAMs guidance suggest the storms will maintain themselves as they
collide through about 03Z/10pm CDT, with the most likely area of
flash flooding expected between the 2 areas of storms generally
between I-10 and I-35 south and east of Austin and San Antonio.
Ongoing individual cell interactions within the broader areas of
storms will continue to cause localized flash flooding north and
west of San Antonio towards San Angelo.

Wegman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8mkVg11yq00QuHg4jEEIM6PHPDtxrQWK4QC2Gr1XVw1s5L6bw9JoeVu3kvkF44kVnP0D=
2QOyAjDsnTUwewxHCwf7ePQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31199834 30989731 30339667 28829675 28959855=20
            29669992 30840001=20

=3D =3D =3D
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