Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 06 2024 19:48:02 AWUS01 KWNH 061947 FFGMPD NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-070130- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0577 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 347 PM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and South Central North Carolina Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 061947Z - 070130Z SUMMARY...Convection developing across the Carolinas and Georgia may cause flash flooding as rainfall rates approach 3 inches per hour. DISCUSSION...An approaching slow-moving cold front with some meager right entrance region support from a jet streak over the Ohio Valley is providing the forcing for widespread convective initiation across the Southeast this afternoon. The strongest storms just south and southeast of Columbia, SC have produced rainfall rates to 2.5 inches per hour. SPC mesoanalysis shows PWATs as high as 2.4 inches across east central Georgia, with SBCAPE values over 4,000 J/kg across coastal Georgia and far southern South Carolina. Southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front is drawing that abundant moisture and instability northeast into the front...albeit slowly. The result has been storms all across the Southeast that have been easily able to exceed 2 inches per hour rates, while also moving, merging, and organizing very slowly...lengthening the amount of time any one area is subject to heavy rainfall. Soil moisture conditions have been very dry across this area in recent weeks, with very low river levels. While this is certainly better than the alternative...areas where there are more clay soils become more hydrophobic when they're very dry, which initially supports increased runoff from the heavier rains. Thus...urban and small stream flooding are the primary threats today across this area...whereas those communities that see lighter rainfall will be largely very beneficial. Thus...flash flooding appears only possible in the areas that see extended heavy rainfall. CAMs guidance has certainly been slow with developing the convection, with none of them having a good handle on what has developed so far. With the continued advance of the cold front towards the southeast...the front will become increasingly important for helping the storms organize into a line where training and backbuilding become increasingly common. While this is more likely in northern and western portions of the highlighted area (NC/SC)...storms capable of heavy rainfall are expected to continue area-wide through the afternoon. Wegman ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6SqrWHeM1afdgyW4tQ7atJ2yFbXhC8IogPpleuuGmfymEaSoO4Eq0JEgj-ewiVxQtrB7= -RXW_Siq3CkyuyUS6wLy9ps$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...RAH... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35718002 35657942 35227866 33837970 32878058=20 31638144 30988248 31408297 31748294 31948324=20 32008345 32338347 33158291 34338230 35398082=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .