Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 06 2024 18:41:01

AWUS01 KWNH 061840
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-070039-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0576
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Areas affected...Central AL...Central GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061839Z - 070039Z

Summary...Thunderstorm coverage is rapidly expanding along and
behind a weak cold front across the Southeast. Very slow storm
motions (5-10 kts) combined with 2-3"/hr rainfall rates in the
most intense cells along the front will support some flash
flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...Radar and IR imagery depict a focused corridor of
rapid thunderstorm development along a weak cold front which has
stalled across the Southeast. The most intense of these cells were
nearly stationary halfway between a KBMX to KFFC line, with
dual-pol and MRMS hourly rainfall estimates highlighting 2-2.5"/hr
rainfall rates with this activity.

The mesoscale environment in the vicinity of the front remains
very conducive for heavy rainfall, with 2.2-2.4" PWATs, 3000-4000
J/kg MUCAPE, and 5-10 kts of southwesterly 850-300 mb mean flow
noted per recent GPS and mesoanalysis trends. With the front
forecast to remain stalled and steering flow parallel to the
boundary, these slow moving and training cells will continue
through the afternoon. The 12z HREF maintains high (50-60%)
probabilities of rainfall exceeding 3 inches along the front
through 0Z tonight, with individual members showing 5-6". Although
soil saturation percentiles are near normal and FFGs are high
across the region, a few instances of flash flooding appear
possible given the overall efficiency and prolonged residence
times of these cells.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7zzGbcTjjwxLJBu_b071zRdWk7AOuAVl2iVNmYPz5plLsq3HDCs-BAodAfgGqQCEsC1I=
Fdnuin9QOJKe0t736I_vWMQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...JAN...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34768295 34168252 32808342 32138532 31808737=20
            32118849 33078741 33738590 34088410=20

=3D =3D =3D
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