Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 06 2024 18:35:59 AWUS01 KWNH 061835 FFGMPD LAZ000-TXZ000-070000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0575 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 235 PM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 061834Z - 070000Z SUMMARY...Slow-moving storms are developing along a stationary boundary across southeast Texas. Urban and small stream flash flooding possible. DISCUSSION...Slow moving storms have developed along a stationary boundary across southeast Texas this afternoon. The boundary is acting as a focusing mechanism for the storms, as 10 kt southeasterly flow at the surface advects deep tropical moisture into the boundary. Without much other forcing in the area, the storms have been taking advantage of PWATs of 2.2 inches as depicted in SPC Mesoanalysis and SBCAPE values up to 4,000 J/kg to produce very heavy rainfall in the area. Rainfall rates with the storms south and southwest of Beaumont have been approaching 2 inches per hour. Storm motions are slow...with the biggest storms moving the fastest towards the west at 10-15 mph...while the smaller cells have been mostly stationary. CAMs guidance is in fair agreement noting the developing convection in southeast Texas. The continued slow westward motion is in good agreement, whereas the evolution more towards the north inland into Texas or more south towards Victoria is still uncertain. Since the strongest cells have been developing where the stationary boundary is closest to the coast (the Beaumont area)...it seems more probable that storm development will be tied in at least some way to the moisture influx off the Gulf. Thus...leaning towards those solutions that bring more convection southwestward along the coast with time. Later this afternoon, the approach of the wind field of T.S. Beryl will turn the prevailing flow in the Gulf towards the northeast...resulting in a rapid diminishing of the convective coverage in much of the CAMs guidance while also driving the convection west along I-10. Increasing distance from the Gulf and a faster westward motion will diminish the flash flooding threat. Urban and small stream flash flooding will be the greatest threat with these storms in and around the Houston area. Wegman ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_u3sHP3yZuYwggfZcCZgxsWLoSrOaf-PnwBZZXvkZJnytnRm3Hb-dLwva07FovrY_abv= tpTRUNHjAAl36QzIPEUqvcw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 30439498 30349379 30099367 29879368 29759371=20 29549423 29079500 28569586 28199648 28769715=20 29849710 30309633=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .