Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 06 2024 17:12:02

AWUS01 KWNH 061711
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-062259-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0574
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
111 PM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the Interior Northeast...New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061710Z - 062259Z

Summary...Recent satellite imagery depicts scattered linear
thunderstorm segments redeveloping ahead of a diffuse cold front
and lee-trough in New England. Repeating and localized training of
this activity may support isolated flash flooding through the next
several hours.

Discussion...17Z surface analysis shows a diffuse cold front and
lee-side trough advancing into New England on the leading edge of
a mid-level vorticity max over Southern Ontario. Ahead of these
features, signs of new cellular development are underway per
recent regional radar and visible satellite trends. The
environment across the region remains extremely moist (1.6-1.9"
PWATS), with modest instability (approaching 1000-2000 J/kg) noted
amid low-level southerly flow and scattered insolation. This round
of cells have been slow to develop, likely due to poor lapse-rates
and weak convergence along the surface boundaries.

However, with time an anticyclonically curved jet-streak is
forecast to strengthen over Quebec which will encourage more
development along the slow moving front and lee-trough with
additional heating. Given unidirectional effective shear profiles
oriented parallel to a portion of the front, storms will exhibit
periods of training and repeating with 1-1.75"/hr rainfall rates
possible. This supports a risk of isolated flash flooding as 1-3
hr FFGs are quite low in the region, in the 1-1.5" range. Portions
of northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine will be more
susceptible to additional isolated impacts this afternoon in light
of the moderate to heavy rainfall earlier this morning.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6Fw-Q4PRQpBqkH6wxiSXF7xfM3T40Da2uf4dGG-qgAjPMHdTT25ibwedDOMAKFAgRPY1=
_cMNJwkJVVBZxjbT_7BluNs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   47496923 47116799 45546823 44067070 42107253=20
            42527407 44217358 44977271 45707075=20

=3D =3D =3D
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