Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 06 2024 16:35:51 ACUS01 KWNS 061635 SWODY1 SPC AC 061634 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains this afternoon into evening, including central/eastern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ....Central/Southern Plains to Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over the western Dakotas will continue southeastward, with a cyclonically curved belt of seasonally strong westerlies (40+ kt) from the north-central High Plains to the central Plains and middle/lower Missouri Valley. A weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly eastward from northeast Colorado toward the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity as a weak front advances southeastward across the central High Plains. Moderate destabilization is expected near a surface trough across western Kansas into southwest/south-central Nebraska, to the south of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at midday generally I-80 and northward. These initially elevated storms will probably increasingly interface with a warming and modestly moist boundary layer and trend increasingly surface-based this afternoon on their southern periphery. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7-8 C/km and a relatively strong wind profile will support storm organization, potentially including a couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail. Relatively quick upscale growth into a couple of southeastward-moving clusters is expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant storms. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep the severe threat more isolated and marginal. Some severe risk is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains, where a small or cluster or two capable of strong/potentially severe wind gusts could occur. ....Northeast States... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon from the lower Hudson Valley and especially into upstate eastern New York and northern New England, influenced by higher terrain/differential heating as well as a wind shift/weak eastward-moving front. Pre-convective MLCAPE may reach 1250-1500 J/kg, with relatively long/semi-straight hodographs with 50+ kt effective shear. Sustained multicells are expected with some possibility of a few transient/weak supercells. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon through early evening. ...Guyer/Jewell.. 07/06/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .