Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 06 2024 06:21:22

AWUS01 KWNH 060621
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-061030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0572
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 AM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Areas affected...Northeast NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060620Z - 061030Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms redeveloping over
portions of northeast NM may pose a localized threat for some
additional flash flooding concerns overnight.

DISCUSSION...Locally slow-moving showers and thunderstorms have
been tending to redevelop and expand in coverage parts of
northeast NM over the last hour, and some additional increase in
the coverage of convection is expected over the next few hours.

Moist and convergent low-level southeast flow into northeast NM
and including the favored upslope areas of the Sangre De Cristo
mountains will combine with as much as 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
to foster this threat. Additionally, there is some subtle evidence
of weak vort energy aloft in the mid to upper-level northwest flow
over the region which may also provide some modest deeper layer
ascent.

Expect rainfall rates to locally reach 1 to 2 inches/hour with the
stronger storms, and with slow cell-motions and some of the
convection tending to be anchored close to the higher terrain,
there may be a couple of spotty 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals over
the next few hours. Overall the convection is expected to
gradually expand a bit more in coverage off to the south and east
based on the 00Z HREF guidance.

Given the higher rainfall rates and potential for heavier totals,
there may be a localized threat for flash flooding, and this may
include some of the burn scar locations in the Sangre De Cristo
mountains.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6Iw84aVkZpelb_aKYfI2UC23fkEfYGF1IsuyDmdRDdJBh7WdTAFIHlIKykhFHmVDv4-e=
8zWusl9CjhskA3CsOdxNP_4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37150388 36610299 35490315 34920380 34900476=20
            35210525 35720533 36370507 36920463=20

=3D =3D =3D
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