Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 05 2024 23:51:19

AWUS01 KWNH 052351
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-060300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0569
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 PM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052350Z - 060300Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving storms that have developed over portions of
southern New England are producing rainfall rates approaching 3
inches per hour. Flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Slow-moving storms have developed along a
trough/dying front located over central Massachusetts this
evening. With south to southwesterly flow advecting plentiful
atmospheric moisture into southern New England, the storms are
expected to maintain their intensity over the next few hours.
PWATs over 2 inches and SBCAPE values around 2,000 J/kg over
Massachusetts are over 2.5 sigma above normal for this time of
year for PWATs and over the 90th percentile in the climatology.
The storms further south into western Connecticut have also been
slow moving and could pose a flash flooding threat with rates over
2 inches per hour noted by both the Boston and Upton radars. This
is nearing the hourly FFG of 2-2.5 inches across Litchfield
County.

CAMs guidance suggests the storms currently moving over the New
York City metro will overtake the storms in western Connecticut as
they move towards the northeast along the trough. This should
allow overall movement of the heaviest rainfall rates to begin
over the next hour or 2. However, the boundary the storms across
Massachusetts have formed along is very slow-moving and is not
expected to move much over the next few hours. This could allow
training convection to develop as noted in the 22Z HRRR.

Wegman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9w54OUhYdGrsM2vr2VhS19cwns94jb3bVDrZp1EiLu23R-qyTJZa0P_Ha2o55vpZEbHS=
z4vEjfMBguWtA9NXDCZ6gYA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   43267075 42747087 42167138 41637202 41287316=20
            41407407 41887356 42227284 42627227 42877182=20
            43217138=20

=3D =3D =3D
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