Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 05 2024 22:01:48

AWUS01 KWNH 052201
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-060100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0568...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
601 PM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Corrected for Headline- Areas Affected

Areas affected...Western West Virginia & Southeast Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 052159Z - 060100Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding likely as storms that have a history of
producing 3 inch/hour rainfall rates move over a portion of
western West Virginia with FFGs as low as 1.5 in/hour.

DISCUSSION...A small but very potent slow moving line of storms
has developed along the Ohio River between Ohio and West Virginia
ahead of an upper level shortwave, evident on water vapor imagery.
The storms have been growing upscale but will be moving into an
area hit by some storms as recently as yesterday. PWATs ahead of
the storms are as high as 2 inches with SBCAPE as high as 2,500
J/kg. Thus, all of the ingredients are in place for the storms to
remain strong as they track northeast up the Ohio River.

While CAMs seem to have the storms resolved in the right place,
they are not doing well with the storm motion...as recent radar
imagery shows they're generally moving northeast along the Ohio
River, rather than east into West Virginia as most of the CAMs
guidance shows. Expect they will maintain themselves for the next
few hours as all the ingredients necessary for the storms'
maintenance remain in place along their track. Later this evening,
loss of daytime heating should result in the storms' weakening.

Wegman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9PS_Zyq6BD8wSirlsZWOEDQKnrzFdy-ok8TAdt7STElI_mBlzpH6bM7LDrA_3qUpu5RQ=
KdmFjV4zex7YKJU7_WEJ8jo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39918083 39538063 39108099 38498164 38538236=20
            39808143=20

=3D =3D =3D
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