Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 05 2024 19:38:16

AWUS01 KWNH 051938
FFGMPD
NMZ000-060036-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0565
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 PM EDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051936Z - 060036Z

Summary...Convection initiation is underway along portions of the
Sacramento Mountains in New Mexico. Slow storm motions (5-10 kts)
and rainfall rates upwards of 1-2"/hr could lead to burn scar
flooding this afternoon--some of which could be significant near
the Blue 2, South Fork, and Salt burn scars.

Discussion...Day Cloud Phase RGB and experimental LightningCast
data highlight developing thunderstorms atop portions of the
Sacramento and Sangre De Cristo Mountains over the last hour.=20
While the developing storms are somewhat isolated for now, strong
surface heating combined with persistent post-frontal upslope flow
and a weak shortwave to the northwest are expected to yield
additional thunderstorms over the next several hours along the
terrain. Current mesoanalysis estimates already depict a favorable
environment for thunderstorm development in the presence of the
aforementioned forcing, including 2000-3000 J/kg of uncapped
SBCAPE and 0.9-1" PWATS nosing into the terrain. Shear profiles
are currently weak, but the approach of the shortwave will
strengthen effective shear profiles briefly to 20-30 kts over the
next several hours to support some convective organization and
longevity. However, dry air noted on the low-level moisture
channel imagery may limit more robust rainfall potential as storms
could develop strong cold pools and forward propagate.=20=20

Even so, as these storms mature rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr and
initial storm motions around 10 kts could support some isolated
instances of flash flooding with 1 hour FFGs around .75-1"/hr. The
threat for significant flash flooding impacts will remain confined
to vulnerable burn scars in the region, including the Blue 2,
South Fork, and Salt burn scars in the Sacramento mountains.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5KO4WkKI4S79j5A2-_3NvE4fCPM_ioA6GReQll6Pj6XWrqoKYJkmmjVwHWzX_9iyS9de=
muGn6iiQ69wGRWg8aWCnCAg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36860423 35830390 33910435 32820448 32330495=20
            32330542 32490592 33200598 34680554 35920550=20
            36760523=20

=3D =3D =3D
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